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RESEARCH REPORT

What’s Happening in UK Property?

A Past-to-Forecast Breakdown

5-MINUTES READ
Marketing Research & Website Strategy

Key Points

  • Research suggests UK property prices have risen steadily over the past five years, with a slight dip in 2023.
  • It seems likely that as of January 2025, the average house price is around £269,000, with a 4.9% annual growth rate.
  • The evidence leans toward a 3% rise in house prices by the end of 2025, though forecasts vary.
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Historical Trends

Over the past five years, UK house prices have shown significant growth, with some fluctuations:

2020
Average UK house price in 2020 before the post-pandemic surge.
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2021
2021 average price, marking strong growth amid high buyer demand.
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2022
Peak property prices reached in 2022 driven by low interest rates.
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2023
2023 saw a slight dip due to rising rates and economic uncertainty.
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2024
In 2024, prices rebounded, signalling renewed confidence in the market.
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Current Market Conditions

As of early 2025, the market is active with a record number of homes for sale, creating a buyers’ market. This has led to more realistic pricing from sellers and heightened buyer confidence. However, first-time buyers face challenges with high deposit costs and affordability issues due to rising living expenses.

Future Outlook

Forecasts suggest moderate growth in 2025, with an expected 3% rise in house prices by year-end, supported by falling interest rates and government housing policies. Specific sectors like student accommodation are expected to see strong rental growth due to high demand.

Report

UK Property Market Analysis (Past, Present, and Forecast)

The UK property market has been a focal point for investors, homeowners, and policymakers, given its significant impact on the economy and individual financial well-being. This report provides a detailed analysis of the market’s performance over the past five years, its current state as of April 2025, and forecasts for the remainder of the year, drawing on a range of authoritative sources to ensure accuracy and depth.

(2020–2024)

Historical Performance

The past five years have seen a mix of robust growth and temporary setbacks in UK house prices, influenced by economic conditions such as the COVID-19 pandemic, interest rate changes, and supply-demand dynamics. Below is a table summarising the average UK house prices for each year, based on data from the Nationwide Building Society:

Taxpayer Type Income Threshold CGT Rate on Property Gains
Basic Rate Taxpayers Up to £50,270 18%
Higher & Additional Rate Taxpayers Over £50,270 24%
Key Observations

House prices increased sharply from 2020 to 2022, reaching a peak of £267,388 in 2022, driven by strong demand and limited supply. A slight dip in 2023 to £259,862 was likely due to higher interest rates and economic uncertainty following the pandemic. By 2024, prices recovered to £265,240, reflecting renewed market confidence and a return to growth.

January 2025

Current Market Conditions

As of January 2025, the UK property market is characterized by increased activity and a shift toward a buyers’ market, with the following key metrics:

Market Dynamics

There is a record number of homes for sale, as reported by Buyers’ the property market looms in the UK amid record numbers of homes for sale, which has led to more realistic pricing from sellers and heightened buyer engagement. This shift is particularly notable in early 2025, with strong January activity fueled by increased mortgage approvals and traffic on property portals, as noted in the UK Property Market in 2025: Trends, Hotspots & Insights.

Average House Price

£269,000, with an annual growth rate of 4.9%, according to the official UK House Price Index from HM Land Registry, published on UK House Price Index for January 2025.

Challenges

First-time buyers face significant hurdles, with 67% citing the cost of a deposit as a barrier and 41% unable to service a mortgage, according to What can we expect from the UK housing market in 2025? Rising rents and living costs further impact their ability to save for a deposit, exacerbating the housing shortage.

Forecast for 2025

Looking ahead, the UK property market is expected to see moderate growth, with forecasts suggesting a 3% rise in house prices by the end of 2025, based on projections from Hamptons, as reported in UK property will be a buyers’ market in 2025, analysts predict. Key factors supporting this outlook include:

Falling Interest Rates

Mortgage rates are projected to continue declining in 2025, improving affordability and boosting sales volumes, as noted in UK Real Estate Market Outlook 2025. This is expected to translate into further recovery in house prices.

 The Labour government’s focus on planning reform and a target to build 1.5 million homes by 2029, mentioned in What’s the Outlook for UK House Prices in 2025?, may help address supply constraints, though new housing supply is expected to remain below target.

The Purpose Built Student Accommodation (PBSA) sector is forecasted to see strong rental growth due to high demand from international students and limited supply, as highlighted in the CBRE report.

However, there are risks to this outlook, including potential slower rate reductions due to higher inflation, which could lead to subdued growth post-April, and ongoing affordability challenges for first-time buyers, as discussed in the Morningstar article. Additionally, Zoopla predicts a 2.5% rise by year-end, as seen in House Price Index: March 2025, indicating some variation in forecasts that stakeholders should consider.

Additional Insights

An unexpected detail is the regional variation, with London expected to see 4% growth in Q4 2025, potentially marking the beginning of a new housing cycle where it outperforms other regions, as per the Hamptons forecast in the Guardian article. This regional disparity could influence investment decisions and market strategies.

The market’s shift to a buyers’ market, with decade-high levels of homes for sale, as reported by Rightmove in the Guardian, is another notable trend, offering more choice for buyers but potentially pressuring sellers to restrict price increases.

Conclusion

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the UK property market, capturing its historical trends, current dynamics, and future outlook. While the market shows signs of recovery and growth, challenges such as affordability and supply constraints remain critical areas for stakeholders to monitor.

The forecasted 3% growth in 2025, supported by falling interest rates and government initiatives, offers a cautiously optimistic picture, though regional and demographic variations will shape the market’s evolution.

Key Citations

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